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Report Analysis | Decommissioning and Renewal of Power Batteries will experience explosive growth around 2018
发布时间: 2019-04-22 16:23:26 | 291 次浏览
For new energy vehicles, batteries need to be replaced when the capacity of batteries decreases to 70-80% of the initial capacity. For new energy vehicles, when the capacity of batteries decreases to 70-80% of the initial capacity, batteries need to be replaced. The service life of batteries in electric passenger vehicles is 4-6 years, while that of commercial vehicles is higher, so the life of batteries is about 3-5. Year. Since the promotion of new energy vehicles started after 2013, it can be deduced that the first batteries of will be renewed in around 2018, when the decommissioning and renewal of power batteries are expected to usher in explosive growth.

Source: Huachuang Securities, Industry Research Report

New Energy Vehicles and Power Batteries Keep Stable and High Increase

New energy vehicles have obvious advantages in environmental protection and enter a stable development period.

Compared with traditional automobiles, the advantages of new energy automobiles in environmental protection are mainly embodied in:

Low Emission of Hazardous Particulates : Because of the use of electricity, hydrogen or mixed energy, there are fewer harmful substances such as lead, benzene and particulate matter, and the emission pollution of its own exhaust gas is smaller than that of traditional fuel vehicles. Even if converted into the emissions of power plants according to the amount of electricity consumed, the pollution caused by power plants is less than that of traditional vehicles, because the energy conversion rate of power plants is higher, and the centralized emission can be more. It is convenient to install emission reduction and pollution control equipment.

Enhance energy efficiency: Take electric vehicles as an example, according to the consumption of electricity 15-20 kwh per 100 km, considering power plant and motor losses, energy consumption is about 7 kg of standard coal, traditional vehicles are calculated by 10 L per 100 km, energy consumption is about 10 kg of standard coal.

Based on the advantages of new energy vehicles in environmental protection, the state has promulgated many preferential policies for the production, sale and purchase of new energy vehicles to stimulate the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry.

The new energy automobile market has maintained high-speed growth after the outbreak of both production and sales. From 2013 to 2015, the new energy automobile market has achieved explosive growth, and its output has increased exponentially year by year. Since 2016, the growth has shifted from outbreak to steady growth. In the past two years, it has maintained a production growth rate of more than 50%. In 2017, it has achieved 794,000 vehicles, an increase of 53.6% over the previous year.

After the explosion of the power battery, the steering direction increased steadily, and the ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for half of the total.

Power batteries, as the supporting equipment of new energy vehicles, have also experienced the development from explosion to steady growth. Overall, the total shipment of power batteries in 2017 was 38.2 GWh, an increase of 37.0% over the previous year.

In the development and application of power batteries, the major manufacturers take high performance lithium batteries as their main objects, which can be divided into three main categories according to the different cathode materials: lithium batteries, lithium batteries, lithium batteries, lithium batteries, lithium batteries

Lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries and ternary batteries such as nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) and nickel cobalt aluminium (NCA) have stable positive polarization properties and long service life. At the same time, lithium iron phosphate still occupies half of the power batteries due to the low cost of raw materials.

The advantages of ternary material batteries, such as high energy density, stronger temperature resistance and charging efficiency, have made them more and more popular in recent years, and their proportion has increased rapidly.

In 2017, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 19.97 Gwh, accounting for 50%, while that of ternary materials batteries was 16.15 Gwh, accounting for 44%.

A large number of power batteries are about to enter the decommissioning period. The demand for recycling is urgent and the market space is vast.

The growth rate of power battery recovery is expected to exceed 200% in 2018.
For new energy vehicles, batteries need to be replaced when the capacity of batteries decreases to 70-80% of the initial capacity. The battery life of electric passenger vehicles is 4-6 years, while that of commercial vehicles is higher, so the battery life is about 3-5 years.

Since the promotion of new energy vehicles started after 2013, it can be estimated that the first batteries will be replaced by pilot batteries around 2018, when the decommissioning and renewal of power batteries is expected to usher in explosive growth.

We assume that the battery life cycle of new energy passenger vehicles is 5 years, commercial vehicles are 4 years, and the renewal rate (i.e. the total number of batteries that should be decommissioned when the actual decommissioned batteries/years expire) increases year by year. According to the output of power batteries in recent years, we can estimate that by 2018, the installed capacity of power batteries will be increased by 11.14GWh or by 278.9% year-on-year.

Assuming that the energy density of lithium iron phosphate and ternary material batteries is stable at 0.11MWh/t and 0.18MWh/t, the corresponding weight of lithium iron phosphate batteries is about 92.2 million tons, an increase of 273.3% over the same period of last year.

The potential environmental threat of lithium batteries is great
A large number of decommissioned batteries will pose potential threats to the environment, especially heavy metals, electrolytes, solvents and various organic excipients in power batteries. If discarded without proper disposal, it will cause great harm to soil and water, and the repair process will take a long time and cost is high. Therefore, the demand for recycling is urgent.

The development space of recycling treatment is huge

1、Retired battery recycling system was initially established, and extended producer responsibility promoted the tightening of recycling network
In the "Producer Responsibility Extension System Implementation Plan" issued by the State Council in January 2017, it was clearly stated that the responsibility of battery recycling belongs to the producer. Electric vehicle and power battery manufacturers were required to establish waste battery recycling network, use after-sales service network to recycle waste batteries, statistics and release recycling information to ensure the standard recycling and safe disposal of waste batteries.

Automobile manufacturers are responsible for traceability : automobile manufacturers give priority to the use of renewable raw materials, safe and environmentally friendly materials, consider recyclability and disassembly, and code products sold to consumers, and establish a life cycle traceability system.

Distributors and after-sales outlets guarantee recovery and disposal : At the same time, automobile manufacturers establish after-sales service outlets, statistics and publish recycling information to ensure the standard recycling and safe disposal of waste batteries.

Consumption - Actively propose recycling : Consumers buy and use automobiles/power batteries until they are scrapped and notify the automobile recycling department after sales.

Distribution and after-sales outlets recycle and notify the next recycling and disassembly : For batteries, after the outlet unifies the waste power batteries, it notifies the professional battery recycling company; for vehicles, it notifies the scrap automobile disassembly enterprise to disassemble, and the dismantled batteries recycle or notify the professional battery recycling company to dispose.

Battery Recycling Enterprises Complete Cycle by Step Utilization/Disassembly and Regeneration : Waste Power Battery Companies classify the safety and availability of batteries, inform power battery recycling and resource recycling enterprises to distribute the available power batteries reasonably to enterprises requiring low-power batteries, or sell them to recycling outlets authorized by batteries enterprises, and recycle outlets. The matching use of batteries can be achieved by detecting the waste degree, power consumption and reusable value of different batteries.

Unusable batteries are disassembled and raw materials are sold to the corresponding battery manufacturers to complete the cycle.
Under this policy background, the recycling system of power batteries will be further clarified. The recycling mechanism of battery manufacturers - Automobile Enterprises - consumers - recycling / processing enterprises - battery manufacturers / other manufacturers will be recognized. Third-party recycling / processing enterprises can establish closer links with upstream and downstream. However, the previously mentioned small workshops and other channels can not directly connect with legal channels, so their survival space materials will be recognized. It will be further compressed.

2、Recycling and regeneration scheme: There is still room for upgrading the cascade utilization. There are two main disposal modes for waste batteries which have high maturity of disassembly technology and are replaced by cascade utilization and disassembly.

The recycling system of cascade utilization has been formed.

The cascade utilization refers to that the decommissioned power batteries have been tested, screened and restructured, and are used in the fields of low-speed electric vehicles, standby power supply, electric energy storage and other areas where the operation conditions are relatively good and the battery performance requirements are relatively low.

At present, the main areas of cascade utilization are still energy storage and peak shaving. Taking China's iron tower as an example, the demand for reserve power such as reserve power for tower, peak shaving and valley filling station is about 8800 kWh (at present, the main lead-acid batteries with short service life, low energy density and low price). With the requirements of environmental protection and efficiency, the replacement material for lead-acid batteries will open a huge demand gap for power battery cascade utilization.

At present, the technology of cascade utilization based on PACK (Battery Pack, Multi-stage Series-Parallel Battery Composition Module) and BMS (Battery Management System) is the mainstream choice.

PACK process is divided into three parts: processing, assembling and packaging. The core of PACK process is to form battery pack by series and parallel connection of multiple single electric cores through mechanical structure.

Due to the need to consider the mechanical strength and system matching of the battery pack, a large number of mature technologies, such as thermal management, current control and detection, module assembly design and computer virtual development, need to cooperate with each other, which is a high threshold in the process of cascade utilization.

The main function of BMS battery management system is to manage and maintain each battery unit intelligently, prevent battery from overcharging and overdischarging, and monitor battery status in real time, so as to protect battery life.

BMS is a collection of management system, control, display, communication and information acquisition modules, which plays a link role in connecting the whole vehicle, battery and battery system. For battery manufacturers, BMS embodies the core technical competitiveness of manufacturers, while for power battery cascade utilization, BMS determines the scope of application, life and overall value of reused batteries.

In a narrow sense, cascade utilization only refers to the reorganization and reuse of batteries, while the current system of cascade utilization and reuse of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been formed. Its connotation has become a full-cycle and multi-level utilization around available resources: when vehicles enter the scrap period (the life of ordinary vehicles is longer than that of batteries), they will experience:

(1)High Performance Battery Screening: Vehicle enterprises, automobile disassembly factories and some recycling enterprises will screen out the batteries with high consistency and relatively good performance from scrap batteries by means of testing, and then allocate or commission other enterprises to allocate batteries for sale to downstream cascade utilization enterprises represented by China Tower.

(2) Dismantling: For batteries in poor condition and without direct utilization value, most of them will be collected in the hands of third-party recycling enterprises. Recycling enterprises use physical or wet methods to dismantle and reuse, extract and sell raw materials such as copper, aluminium and diaphragm, and the powder of positive and negative materials of lithium iron phosphate batteries will enter the repair stage. < br /> < br /> (3) Repair: The purpose of the repair is to further purify the material powder of lithium iron phosphate in order to obtain a higher price. At the same time, the decommissioned batteries will also receive the disassembly/repair process to achieve multi-dimensional layer-by-layer utilization.

(2) Dismantling: For batteries in poor condition and without direct utilization value, most of them will be collected in the hands of third-party recycling enterprises. Recycling enterprises use physical or wet methods to dismantle and reuse, extract and sell raw materials such as copper, aluminium and diaphragm, and the powder of positive and negative materials of lithium iron phosphate batteries will enter the repair stage. < br /> < br /> (3) Repair: The purpose of the repair is to further purify the material powder of lithium iron phosphate in order to obtain a higher price. At the same time, decommissioned batteries will also receive disassembly/repair processes to achieve multi-dimensional layer-by-layer utilization of the entire cycle process, general recycling enterprises have three profit points , that is, (1) to sell batteries with good initial screening status, which can be directly used in cascade; (2) to sell raw materials after disassembly; (3) to sell the repaired positive/negative materials. < br /> < br /> but the current cascade utilization is due to two aspects of technology and commercialization: < br />. < br /> < strong > From a technical point of view < / strong > Because of the poor consistency and different life of power batteries, the data of BMS system will deviate from the actual status of batteries, thus confronting the challenges of safety and product quality in the process of cascade utilization; < br /> < strong > From a commercial point of view < / strong > On the one hand, the standardization degree of products currently used in cascade utilization is high. Relatively low, on the other hand, because of the different types of batteries, the batteries needed in the batteries allocation base will be very large, then the screening, allocation and processing costs are still relatively high, only a few enterprises with mature technology can obtain economic benefits. Nevertheless,

at present, many industry leaders have reached strategic cooperation agreements for research and application with downstream utilizing enterprises such as China Tower. With the introduction and implementation of various standards for power batteries, the consistency of batteries will be greatly improved, and close cooperation will help solve the application problems of cascade utilization in the future. The disassembly technology of ternary batteries < br /> < br /> < strong > is relatively mature < / strong > < br />. For ternary material batteries, the commonly used recycling method is still dismantling. The dismantled products, such as nickel, cobalt, lithium, copper and aluminium, still have high economic value (lithium iron phosphate recovery costs and dismantling benefits are close, dismantling benefits are low), and are generally used in the remanufacturing of power batteries. At present,

recovery process is mainly divided into dry process, wet process and biological recovery, among which wet process is the main process at present, and its recovery rate is high and precious metals can be directionally recovered. Dry process is generally used as a supporting process of wet process, mainly for the preliminary treatment of metals, while biological recovery is still in its infancy and technology development is still immature. < br /> < br /> According to the "Provisional Procedure for the Management of Industrial Standards and Conditions for the Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2016, the comprehensive use of dry and wet methods for the recovery and utilization of power batteries is encouraged. The recycling and disassembly market of < br /> < br /> is relatively dispersed at present, and the proportion of ternary material batteries in retired batteries (mostly around 2014) is still relatively low. However, because the original precious metals such as nickel and cobalt are still scarce resources in the upstream industry, the disassembly of ternary batteries has great potential. < br /> < br /> < br /> < strong > 3. Recycling channels are gradually formed to solve the pain point of irregular operation mode < / strong >

Because the power battery recycling market is still in the primary stage of development, various non-standard phenomena still exist, mainly in:

Technology and environmental protection of small enterprises still fall short of the standard
At present, small and medium-sized enterprises in the market generally use crushing to recycle resources, and the crushing method is mainly unified crushing, that is, raw materials are crushed into hoppers into powder and flake shape, and copper powder and aluminum powder are recovered by coarse classification of dust. On the one hand, the impurities of copper powder and aluminum powder are high, on the other hand, the environmental protection is seriously not up to the standard. However, due to the scattered distribution of small enterprises, supervision can not be fully touched, so it still hinders the development of industry intensive.

Battery transportation cost is high and regional
Battery transportation is regarded as hazardous waste transportation. The cost of handling in different places will increase because of the high transportation cost. Small-scale enterprises can not reduce the cost by increasing turnover. Therefore, more enterprises tend to recycle in the local area. For businesses that need transportation, some non-standard enterprises adopt the way of cooperation with transportation enterprises with hazardous waste transportation qualification to "scrape the ball". The nominal operation of enterprises with hazardous waste qualifications but not the use of special vehicles for hazardous waste has reduced the cost, but has formed a huge potential environmental pollution safety hazard.

Although the non-standard behavior of the industry still exists, the enterprises represented by large automobile enterprises have strengthened the construction of recycling network through active links of the industry chain.

From the point of view of automobile enterprises, promises consumers the service life of batteries. When the batteries are discarded in advance and the promised service life is not reached, consumers can replace the discarded batteries in terminal channels such as 4S stores. Automobile enterprises usually replace batteries in a better state, so that consumers'use of batteries in the remaining commitment period is basically unaffected, while automobile enterprises. The battery can be recycled at both the recovery end and the utilization end.

Auto companies actively promote recycling is an important part of the normalization of the whole recycling channel, and the power batteries recovered will flow into qualified and technical professional battery recycling and reuse enterprises.

From the point of view of battery recycling enterprises, will generally cooperate with upstream enterprises such as recycling service outlets and scrap vehicle recycling to obtain scrap power batteries.

By using or disassembling the batteries step by step, the discarded batteries will be added value, and then the batteries will be sold to downstream users such as energy storage, or the raw materials of the dismantled batteries will be sold to battery enterprises to complete the closed-loop reuse.

At present, domestic automobile enterprises have started in battery replacement commitment and scrap battery recycling. With the close cooperation of various links, the circulation of power batteries will be more transparent in the future, and the recycling system will be more standardized and healthy.

Market prospects for dismantling are promising

Ternary Batteries: Prices of precious metals remain high and there is a wide space for disassembly revenue

Recycling and disassembly of ternary batteries has benefited from the high prices of precious metals in recent years.

Taking ternary 523 batteries as an example, the contents of nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium are about 96, 48, 32 and 19 kg per ton of ternary batteries. At present, the average recovery rate of nickel, cobalt and manganese in the market can reach more than 95%, and the recovery rate of lithium is about 70%. The market prices of lithium, cobalt, electrolytic nickel and electrolytic manganese are 900,000 yuan/ton, 600,000 yuan/ton, 100,000 yuan/ton and 120,000 yuan/ton, respectively. < br /> < br /> Considering that the sales price of ternary batteries recycling enterprises should be lower than the market price of pure metal after dismantling precious metals in the form of sulfate, the dismantling profit of ternary batteries would be 340,000 yuan/ton if they were sold at 70% of the market price. Therefore, the dismantling market of ternary batteries alone is expected to reach 5.41 billion yuan by 2023. CAGR is expected to reach 61.9% in the next five years.
In terms of cost, the cost of recovery of ternary batteries is mainly composed of production cost, various kinds of expenses and taxes.
Among them, the main components of production cost are:

The cost of materials (waste batteries, liquid nitrogen, water, acid-base reagents, extractants, precipitators, etc.) is 20,000 yuan/ton, while the cost of fuel and power (electricity, natural gas, gasoline consumption, etc.) is 650 yuan/ton.

The cost of environmental treatment (waste gas, waste water purification and waste residue and ash treatment) is 550 yuan/ton, and the cost of equipment (equipment maintenance and depreciation) is 500 yuan/ton.

The labor cost (operation, technology, transportation personnel, etc.) is 400 yuan/ton. The management expenses such as salary of managers and sales expenses such as sales staff and packaging are about 400 yuan/ton, and the VAT and income tax are 4000 yuan/ton.

The total dismantling cost of ternary batteries is 26500 yuan/ton. According to the above income of 34000 yuan/ton, the dismantling profit is 7500 yuan/ton, and the corresponding net profit margin in 2023 is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan.

Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries: Ten Billion Billions of Market Potential for Cascade Utilization

As far as disassembly and recycling is concerned, the cost of reclaiming lithium iron phosphate batteries by wet method is about 8500 yuan/ton, while the profit of reclaimed precious metals materials is only about 8100 yuan, so the borrowing loss is about 400 yuan/ton.

Therefore, considering the economy, we only calculate the cascade utilization space of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

We assume that the cost of PACK and BMS is about 0.3 yuan/Wh, the cost of BMS is 0.1 yuan/Wh, the cost of recovery of waste lithium iron phosphate batteries is 0.05 yuan/Wh, the total cost of cascade utilization of lithium iron phosphate batteries is about 0.45 yuan/Wh, and the benefit of cascade utilization is 0.6 yuan/Wh.

Assuming that the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 110 Wh/kg, the energy of reclaimed waste batteries decreases to 70%, and the profit space of cascade utilization is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan by 2023.

Development Trend and Characteristic of Industry --- Leading Concentration Degree is Hope to Improve

Demand in developed areas is increasing, and there is a strong regional barrier to the distribution of regions and channels
power battery recycling, and the channels of each link will be relatively fixed after industry standardization. Therefore, leading enterprises in the distribution channels of regions and industry chains at this stage are expected to obtain stable retired battery resources in the future.

At present, domestic new energy automobile manufacturing enterprises and promotion policies are concentrated in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other southeastern regions, while developed first-and second-tier cities still occupy the forefront of new energy automobile ownership.

By the end of 2016, the number of new energy vehicles in the top five cities represented by Shanghai and Beijing was about 352,000, accounting for 23% of the 153,000 vehicles in China. Similarly, the recycling channels of power batteries also show strong regional characteristics, and the coincidence degree between the distribution of production capacity and the promotion area of energy vehicles is relatively high.
At present, leading enterprises in the industry have expanded the front-end channel (i.e. recycling end) and the back-end channel (i.e. downstream utilization end) through self-built production lines, mergers and acquisitions and cooperation with upstream and downstream.

Among them, the enterprises represented by Guanghua Science and Technology, Greenmay, etc. make use of their main industry advantages to advance the distribution from supply to demand. On the one hand, they broaden the coverage area of front-end recycling channels, on the other hand, they expand their production capacity by building their own production lines, and sign strategic cooperation agreements with enterprises to ensure smooth downstream demand.

In addition, other links in the industrial chain, such as battery manufacturers (represented by Ningde era), equipment manufacturers (Tianqi shares) have also entered the recycling field through mergers and acquisitions.

The standardized enterprises driven by technology are expected to stand out from the rest of the world by drawing lessons from the development experience of lead-acid batteries
By comparing the historical development pattern of recovery of lead-acid batteries, we believe that, driven by policy, leading enterprises with scale effect and comprehensive technological advantages in power battery recovery industry will realize the reverse attack of "good coins extruding bad coins" in the future.

Waste lead-acid batteries have been widely used in transportation, communication and power fields since their invention in 1859. So far, lead-acid batteries are still widely used in various fields of production and life because of their stable working voltage, wide range of discharge current and low cost.

The total amount of scrap market is also considerable. In 2016, scrap lead-acid batteries will exceed 5 million tons, lead content will exceed 3 million tons, and in 2017, scrap lead-acid batteries will exceed 6 million tons and lead content will exceed 4 million tons.

Unlike power battery recovery, lead-acid batteries are more dispersed and have lower technical threshold for recovery. Because of the low melting point of lead and the relatively simple composition of batteries, even in small workshops without any technical foundation, 80% to 90% of lead in batteries can be obtained by this indigenous lead smelting process with simple heating.

The small workshop dumps waste liquor and discharges waste gas at will in the process of refining. The cost burden of pollution-free treatment is much higher than that of the regular lead-acid battery treatment plant. Therefore, about 80% of the lead-acid batteries will flow into the small workshop without hazardous waste management license through vendors.
High risk and low threshold hinder large-scale development
Although many policies and treatment methods have been issued for the recovery of lead-acid batteries in China, due to the high risk of lead-acid batteries and the strong corrosiveness of acid solution, which is easy to leak, the Technical Specification for Pollution Control of Waste Lead-acid Batteries has put forward strict requirements for all aspects of the treatment of waste lead-acid batteries. On the one hand, the recovery of regular lead-acid batteries has been greatly improved. On the other hand, the requirement of high turnover of storage and transportation links in the regulations has hindered the expansion of the scale of waste lead-acid battery recycling enterprises.

Power battery recycling technology requirements and policy starting point are higher. Standardized enterprises comply with the policy to achieve extrusion effect
Compared with scrap lead-acid battery recycling process, regular manufacturers are facing a lot of small workshop competition and extrusion. Power battery recycling involves not only disassembly, but also higher technical requirements for separation, purification and repair of various materials. General small workshops do not have the technical level of power battery recycling, recycling income is less than lead-acid batteries.

At the same time, stricter environmental requirements further compress the living space of small and scattered enterprises. Policy orientation also focuses on improving the intensive development of the industry and training demonstration enterprises. Therefore, by improving technology to achieve high returns and reduce environmental protection costs, enterprises can naturally improve their profitability and market share at the same time.